A fragile pause

US suspended airstrikes against Iran for a second consecutive day on Sunday, July 26, after President Donald Trump ordered the halt on Friday to create space for diplomacy. The White House communications director, Steven Cheung, said Trump "has always been consistent in saying he prefers a diplomatic solution, but keeps all options open if Iran continues its terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against its allies." Iran's army spokesman, Mohammad Akraminia, announced on state television that Iranian forces would also refrain from attacks. The pause interrupted nearly two weeks of US bombings of Iranian coastal areas and infrastructure, triggered after Iran attacked vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

“President Trump has always been consistent in saying he prefers a diplomatic solution, but keeps all options open if Iran continues its terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz or against its allies.”

Diplomatic channels

Mediation efforts intensified over the weekend. Deputy foreign ministers from Iran and Oman held several rounds of talks in Tehran on Friday and Saturday, focusing on "common principles and operational mechanisms for managing safe transit of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz," according to Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei. He described the talks as "useful" and said "progress was made," with the Omani delegation departing Saturday afternoon while technical and political consultations continue. The US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, told NBC that Trump is "giving space to the talks, giving them a little margin." Pakistan, Qatar, and other countries are also involved in mediation. The 60-day negotiation window set by a June memorandum of understanding is now well into its second half, though core issues such as Iran's nuclear programme remain sidelined.

“The talks were useful and progress was made.”

The cost of war

The conflict, which began on 28 February, has imposed a heavy financial toll. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth disclosed to the Senate last Tuesday that the war has cost $37.5 billion so far, and the military requires an additional $67 billion. Waltz rejected reports of Pentagon weapons rationing, insisting that "the US military has everything it needs to execute this campaign with the necessary effectiveness," and called the leakers of such information "deserving of jail." He added that the US maintains "air superiority and maritime superiority, with unrestricted access over Iran, as we have right now."

Maritime security and energy markets

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's traded oil passed before the war, remains the focal point. Iran and Oman share control of its waters, and Tehran insists that the provisional agreement with the US allows it to continue regulating navigation. Iran has rejected a US proposal to divert part of the traffic to a route closer to the Omani coast. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, threatened last week to block Saudi maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The uncertainty has pushed fuel prices higher. As a sign of de-escalation, Qatar announced it would resume all civilian maritime navigation from Sunday, after a suspension of more than ten days.

Spent to date37.5

Requested additional67

Spent to date

37.5 $ billion

Requested additional

67 $ billion

Data from the article text

What comes next

While the pause holds, the US maintains its naval blockade against Iran. Waltz stressed that Trump "has all options on the table" and is exercising "the diplomatic, economic, and military path to achieve a very clear strategic objective." Cheung warned that "it would be prudent for Iran to work toward a negotiated agreement. Otherwise, you know what will happen." The coming days will test whether the Oman channel can translate tactical restraint into a durable ceasefire.

“The president has all options on the table. And he is exercising the diplomatic, economic, and military path to achieve a very clear strategic objective.”