Venezuela's government and opposition open dialogue with a phone call, as Machado is sidelined

A phone call instead of a meeting

On August 1, the expected start of talks between the Venezuelan government and a sector of the opposition was reduced to a telephone conversation. Jorge Rodríguez, president of the chavista-controlled National Assembly, published a statement saying he had spoken with Dinorah Figuera, representative of the 2015 National Assembly, the last parliament recognized as legitimate by the international community. Rodríguez framed the call as the start of an inclusive and effective political dialogue to join efforts in attending to the victims of the double earthquake of June 24.

for the purposes of initiating an inclusive and effective political dialogue process to join efforts in attending to the victims of the double earthquake of June 24.

Figuera, who returned to Venezuela on June 18 after eight years of exile with explicit backing from the US State Department, issued her own statement describing the conversation as the beginning of a dialogue "for the democratic transition," relegating earthquake relief to a secondary plane. Both sides agreed to a first in-person session in Caracas next week, centered on three axes: attention to earthquake victims, strengthening of democracy, and political rights and guarantees. They also claimed to have defined "clear and verifiable goals," though no specifics were given.

The exclusion of Machado

The most conspicuous absence from the negotiating table is María Corina Machado, the opposition figure whom millions of Venezuelans consider their legitimate representative and a Nobel Peace Prize laureate. Before Figuera set foot in Venezuela, Machado had insisted that the leadership of any negotiation belonged to her. Figuera acknowledged differences, but the main opposition chair was already occupied. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who confirmed the talks would start the first week of August, said the decision on Machado's role was for Venezuelans to make, but he made clear Washington's mandate: political parties must transform from street protest movements into electoral forces.

political parties must stop being street protest movements and become electoral forces.

Rubio added that the transition would take time. Henry Alviarez, organization coordinator of Vente Venezuela, backed the demand of families of political prisoners, calling for an election date and stating that democracy cannot exist with 379 political prisoners and millions in exile. Vente Venezuela's trust in Rubio did not translate into a seat at the table.

there cannot be democracy with 379 political prisoners and millions in exile.

US tutelage and the earthquake's role

The dialogue is not a goodwill exercise but a geopolitical imposition accelerated by the devastation of the June 24 double earthquake. The United States needs to halt Venezuela's collapse to prevent a new migration wave. Washington's agenda includes reconstruction of institutions, reform of the National Electoral Council (CNE), and recovery of civil liberties. For chavismo, the sole demand is the lifting of sanctions. The process is under what the State Department calls the "Venezuela experiment," with an operations base in Madrid where the opposition commission prepared technical tables for five commissions to be made public soon.

The roadmap: CNE, elections, and prisoners

The two tutored commissions have a mandate to reach December with a new CNE capable of charting a route to reopen the polls at the end of next year. The five new CNE rectors would be accompanied by an update of the electoral roll (nine million Venezuelans have fled chavismo, forming the largest diaspora of this century), an audit of the voting system, and an electoral calendar. The electoral puzzle would be completed with the composition of a new Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ), crucial for the elections. The Rodríguez brothers, Jorge and President Delcy Rodríguez, had everything ready to impose their judges to replace those controlled by Cilia Flores, the wife of Nicolás Maduro. The legalization and return of electoral cards to opposition parties condemned by the TSJ are also on the table.

The teams

The government announced a six-person commission alongside Jorge Rodríguez: university education minister Ana María San Juan, deputy Jorge Arreaza (who led the implementation of the amnesty law), National Assembly vice-president Pedro Infante (from the regime's most radical wing), and PSUV youth parliamentarians América Pérez and Génesis Garvett, the latter a veteran of the 2022–2023 Mexico negotiations. Figuera's team, confirmed Saturday, includes deputies from Primero Justicia and Voluntad Popular, the surviving members of the 2015 National Assembly whose legal term expired in 2020. The first in-person session is set for next week in Caracas, under total secrecy.