Hendrik Wüst leads Markus Söder in poll on potential successors to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz

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In brief

Leadership ratings and succession polling

A Forsa Trendbarometer survey conducted for RTL Deutschland between 2 and 5 October 2026 indicates that North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst holds a substantial advantage over Bavarian Minister-President Markus Söder as a potential successor to Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Among respondents who know each politician, 47% consider Wüst suitable for the chancellorship, compared to 26% who say the same for Söder. While Söder has broader general recognition at 95%, 70% of those familiar with him consider him unsuitable for the federal office, with 4% expressing no opinion. Wüst is recognized by 75% of respondents, with 41% viewing him as unsuitable and 12% undecided. The representative poll surveyed 1,002 German citizens and carries an estimated margin of error of approximately three percentage points.

Suitability rating for chancellor among familiar respondents%

Data from the article text

Regional support and age demographics

Geographic and demographic data indicate consistent differences between the two conservative state premiers across German regions and age brackets. In his home state of North Rhine-Westphalia, 50% of surveyed residents view Wüst as suitable for the chancellorship, whereas in Bavaria, only 37% of respondents say the same of Söder. Across the western federal states, 49% of respondents consider Wüst capable of leading the federal government, compared to 25% for Söder. In the eastern federal states, Wüst reaches 34% approval on suitability, while Söder achieves no more than 30%. Söder fails to exceed 30% suitability in any individual age bracket, whereas Wüst stays above 30% across young, middle-aged, and older demographic groups.

Cross-party voter preferences

Wüst registers considerable backing among voters outside the traditional conservative electorate. Among Green Party voters, 63% rate Wüst as suitable for the chancellorship, a figure connected to his role heading a CDU-Green coalition government in North Rhine-Westphalia. Wüst also receives suitability ratings of 58% from Social Democratic Party (SPD) supporters and 37% from Die Linke voters. Among conservative CDU and CSU supporters, 57% consider Wüst suitable, compared to 41% for Söder. Söder holds an advantage only among Alternative for Germany (AfD) supporters, where 28% view him as suitable compared to 8% for Wüst. Debates regarding leadership options followed regional state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and Berlin, where both potential contenders had previously checked each other's ambitions.

Federal party standing and Merz approval

The succession polling follows sustained low satisfaction ratings for Chancellor Merz and a drop in national support for the Union parties. A broader Forsa survey of 2,502 people conducted between 29 September and 5 October 2026 shows that 11% of German citizens are satisfied with Merz's work, matching the figure from the previous week, while 87% express dissatisfaction. Among CDU and CSU supporters, 39% report satisfaction with the chancellor, while 60% express dissatisfaction. In national party preferences, the CDU/CSU alliance polled at 19%, remaining below the 20% threshold for the second consecutive week. The AfD leads federal polling unchanged at 26%, while the Greens gained one point to reach 17%, the SPD remained at 14%, Die Linke fell one point to 11%, and the FDP stayed at 4%. This survey carries a reported margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

Federal party preference in Forsa Trendbarometer poll%