So who decides how much arrives?

Transcript

1. On Friday, Donald Trump posted that Russia will immediately supply
2. over 300,000 tons of diesel to the American and global market.
3. Then 500,000 in November.
4. Then millions more.
5. Between that and what he called total control of the Strait of Hormuz,
6. he wrote, diesel prices will come down in record numbers, and fast.
7. The first 300,000 tons he announced are the size of about
8. 14 hours of America's diesel and heating oil use.
9. What comes after depends on Moscow.
10. A gallon of diesel in America averaged $3.48 in January.
11. In September it reached $6.53, a record before inflation.
12. By early October it was $6.20.
13. The US war with Iran cut what the Gulf could ship.
14. After Ukrainian drones hit Russia's refineries,
15. Russia banned its own diesel exports in July.
16. In August, says the International Energy Agency,
17. the two together exported 1.6 million barrels a day
18. less diesel and gas oil than in February.
19. 300,000 tons is about 2.2 million barrels.
20. America uses about 3.8 million barrels of diesel and heating oil a day.
21. So those first 300,000 tons equal about 14 hours of America's use.
22. If all of it is supplied, everything Trump named comes to about 9½ days.
23. November's amount is about 120,000 barrels a day,
24. against that drop of 1.6 million.
25. November diesel futures fell on Friday.
26. Reports of more Chinese fuel exports pushed them down too.
27. Even if Russia delivers, one analyst told CNN, it's a bandaid.
28. So who decides how much arrives?
29. The same day, Russia's deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak,
30. said Russia is beginning to lift its export ban early.
31. He gave matching figures through December, for America and Russia's other buyers.
32. Later, he said, Russian exports could reach almost 3 million tons a month.
33. American sanctions banned this trade.
34. A Treasury licence now allows it until April, and sets no volume.
35. Trump's own post makes the last
36. 3 million tons depend on Russia's refineries.
37. Kyiv says it struck 5 of them that week.
38. When does it arrive, and who pays?
39. The White House did not immediately respond.
40. Ukraine's President calls the deal an investment in the war.
41. So far: an announced first amount the size of 14 hours of America's use,
42. and lower diesel futures.
43. The rest depends on Moscow's ban, and on refineries Ukraine is striking.