European Union
European democracies and populism
Updated 11h ago
2/5
Populist and anti-liberal political forces are gaining institutional ground within the European Union, testing and at times reshaping the boundaries of liberal democracy through electoral victories, legal challenges, and conflicts with EU frameworks.
The Ceuta migrant crisis has provided a new focal point for far-right and populist parties to advance their agenda within the European Parliament, sharpening the debate on migration and sovereignty.
State of play
Marine Le Pen's 2027 presidential campaign continues despite her embezzlement conviction; the appeal court upheld the verdict on 7 July while reducing her sentence, and her further appeal to the Cour de Cassation suspends its execution, allowing her to campaign. On the night of the appeal ruling she confirmed her fourth candidacy and a planned ticket with Jordan Bardella. Recent national polls continue to show Le Pen and the National Rally as frontrunners, solidifying their position as the largest force in the French parliament. The National Rally also supported the government's new public-order law and the "agricultural emergency" law, highlighting issue-based convergence between centrist and populist forces. Elon Musk's endorsement of Le Pen on social media has intensified debate over foreign influence in the French election.
Germany's AfD Rise
In Germany, the far-right AfD has reelected its co-leaders and projects strength for upcoming regional elections, aiming to enter state coalitions despite mainstream party rejections. Recent national polls show the AfD leading the CDU/CSU bloc, with support in Saxony-Anhalt reported as high as 41%. The AfD is sharpening its platform with a focus on "remigration," strict anti-immigration measures, and a pro-Russian orientation, directly challenging Germany's liberal and pro-Ukraine consensus. The federal government has responded with a domestic reform package, including tax relief and pension changes, explicitly framed as a response to public discontent and the AfD’s strength. While Chancellor Friedrich Merz has ruled out coalitions with the AfD, the chancellery has distanced itself from speculation regarding potential cooperation, and informal contacts and scenario planning by parts of the conservative bloc around possible cooperation with the AfD are being reported, reflecting the AfD’s strengthened polling position and its capacity to shape coalition arithmetic in several eastern Länder.
EU Rule of Law
The EU-Poland rule-of-law confrontation had largely wound down since the European Commission closed the Article 7 procedure against Warsaw in 2024. However, Poland's Constitutional Tribunal has now blocked the recognition of EU same-sex marriages, reviving a direct clash over family law and EU standards. In Hungary, Prime Minister Péter Magyar’s government is pursuing a "purgatorium" plan to dismantle the legacy structures of the former premier, including a constitutional amendment that has ended the term of President Tamás Sulyok, who signed the law on 18 July while warning it harms the rule of law; parliament speaker Ágnes Forsthoffer has taken over as interim head of state. This move has prompted warnings of a potential constitutional crisis and is closely watched by the EU, where Hungary's rule-of-law record remains under scrutiny, with the unfreezing of funds contingent on satisfying the Commission's conditions. Former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called for a "politics of resistance" against the current Hungarian government. The European Court of Justice has ruled that Spain's Catalan amnesty law is compatible with EU law, reinforcing member-state discretion within EU rule-of-law constraints.
Romania's Political Deadlock
Romania remains in political deadlock after the Bolojan government fell in a May no-confidence vote and two attempts to appoint a new prime minister failed. The governing Social Democrats have pressed for a rebuilt pro-European coalition under a rotating premiership, seeking cross-party cooperation to restore functionality to state institutions. The National Liberal Party (PNL) faces an internal leadership crisis after a court suspended decisions from its June congress, effectively annulling the newly elected leadership and restoring the previous structure. This prolongs the party's internal power struggle and complicates its response to the broader political instability.
Poland's Political Landscape
Poland's Law and Justice party is experiencing a significant internal split, with former prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki setting up a new parliamentary group after clashing with Jarosław Kaczyński over the party’s drift toward the far right. This division, which has seen over 30 Members of Parliament depart, weakens Poland’s biggest opposition force and could reshape the opposition landscape. The Polish Sejm has stripped Civic Coalition MP Wojciech Król of his immunity, allowing criminal proceedings for bribery, but blocked his pre-trial detention.
Migration and Sovereignty
Far-right and populist blocs in the European Parliament are pushing for greater influence over migration and sovereignty debates following the late-July mass arrival of migrants in Spain's enclave of Ceuta. These groups are using the incident to advocate for stricter national border controls and asylum policies, framing the crisis as evidence of EU mechanisms' inability to manage large-scale arrivals. Mainstream groups are countering by emphasizing legal limits on unilateral Schengen suspensions and the Commission's support to Spain, but the episode has sharpened the divide between liberal and populist views on sovereignty.
Key events
Full chronicle188
This week
- Far-right MEPs push for stricter national border controls after Ceuta migrant arrivals.
- Populist blocs in European Parliament seek urgent debates on migration and sovereignty.
- Mainstream EU groups invoke legal limits on unilateral Schengen suspensions.