World
The Middle East after Gaza
Updated 42m ago·Update
3/5
The Gaza war has accelerated a fundamental realignment of Middle Eastern power, shifting influence from traditional centers like Egypt and Syria towards the Gulf states, while simultaneously forcing regional and European powers to negotiate a new, post-conflict security architecture for critical chokepoints and alliances.
President Trump's decision to ease further strikes on Iran, influenced by Saudi and European concerns, indicates a shift in US strategy and highlights the growing influence of regional and European actors in shaping the conflict's direction.
State of play
Gaza Disarmament and Governance
US President Trump's framework for the complete disarmament of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza is advancing into an operational phase, with Hamas formally accepting a detailed roadmap. Egyptian and Qatari mediators are engaged in technical discussions, and Cairo is set to host a meeting with the US and Turkey to finalize the implementation of the second phase of the Trump ceasefire plan. This phase focuses on Hamas's disarmament and a gradual Israeli military pullback from Gaza, with heavy weapons to be stored under the control of a Palestinian administration, not transferred to Israel. The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a Palestinian technocratic body, is expected to take over day-to-day governance during a transitional period, supported by an International Stabilization Force and a newly trained Palestinian police force. Gazan residents remain skeptical about the plan's guarantees on Israeli withdrawal and prisoner releases, questioning whether promised economic projects will materialize without a broader political settlement. International newsrooms are pressing for access to Gaza, highlighting that foreign reporter access remains blocked despite movements on ceasefire implementation.
Strait of Hormuz and Energy Markets
Iran's formal rejection of Oman's proposal for a regional joint-management mechanism prolongs the disruption of Gulf trade. A tanker was disabled by an unknown projectile off Oman, and a second vessel reported an explosion nearby, leading to a 77% collapse in Strait of Hormuz traffic. The US naval blockade on Iran's southern ports has been tightened, with commercial ships redirected or intercepted, maintaining American control over a key chokepoint. Brent crude oil prices remain above 91 dollars per barrel on renewed fears over energy security, exacerbated by direct US strikes on Iran and Saudi Arabia's increased role in regional confrontations. Gulf states are intensifying efforts to secure oil and gas exports and are pressing China to use its economic leverage over Tehran to ease threats to shipping. Kuwait and Iraq are accelerating plans for new oil pipeline networks that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, with Kuwait signing a 16 billion dollar partnership with US investment funds. Pakistan is mediating ongoing US-Iran de-escalation talks focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, despite recent US strikes.
Regional Confrontation and Alliances
US embassies across the Middle East have advised American citizens to prepare to leave as the Iran conflict widens to include Egypt, following a drone strike on a Greek gas carrier and a US floating gas depot at an Egyptian port. The US and Saudi Arabia have deepened joint strikes on Iran-linked groups in Iraq, though Baghdad publicly distanced itself from these operations. Jordan reported foiling an Iranian missile attack, underscoring the widening regional confrontation. Yemen's Houthis have launched attacks on Saudi Arabia from Iraqi territory, coordinated with Iran-aligned militias, deepening the regional confrontation framework and linking the Yemen and Iraq theaters into a single anti-Saudi and anti-US axis. Renewed Houthi activity against Saudi Arabia also threatens to unravel understandings that had reduced violence in Yemen, potentially endangering Red Sea shipping again. Saudi Arabia is preparing a potential land offensive against Houthi forces in Yemen and working to assemble a multinational naval coalition to secure Red Sea shipping lanes. The United Arab Emirates is pursuing a dual strategy of easing tensions with Iran through renewed diplomatic and economic engagement while strengthening military and security cooperation with the United States and Israel. Iranian elites are debating US intentions in ongoing contacts, with a deepening rift emerging between hardliners seeking victory and those pushing for a negotiated end to the conflict with the United States. President Trump has eased off further large-scale strikes on Iran following concerns from Saudi Arabia and European allies, who are now central to shaping the regional security architecture.
Key events
Full chronicle659
This week
- US President Trump eased further strikes on Iran after Saudi and European warnings.
- Saudi Arabia voiced concerns over US strike plans, pushing for negotiated security.
- US State Department issued updated guidance for citizens to depart Middle East.
- Egypt, Qatar, US, and Turkey scheduled a Cairo meeting on Gaza ceasefire mechanisms.
- Pakistan confirmed ongoing US-Iran de-escalation talks on the Strait of Hormuz.