World
The US under Trump: second term
Updated 5h ago
2/5
US foreign policy under the Trump administration is shifting decisively from multilateralism toward a doctrine of transactional bilateral bargaining, placing pressure on established alliances, trade relationships, and global institutions, now explicitly linking security commitments to economic concessions.
The resumption of US-Iran talks in Switzerland and the joint US-Japan currency intervention represent concrete diplomatic and economic actions, reinforcing the transactional foreign policy framework.
State of play
The US military continues its naval blockade of Iranian ports and infrastructure. Following renewed Iranian attacks, the US had launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets. President Trump has now paused new airstrikes, stating they will hold off if a deal to end the conflict is reached "quickly." He explicitly links future US security commitments and easing of the naval blockade to Iran's acceptance of broader economic conditions, full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and an end to its nuclear threat. This pattern uses military pressure as leverage while leaving room for a negotiated settlement where sanctions relief and security de-escalation are tied to Iranian concessions. US and Iranian delegations have reconvened in Switzerland for talks aimed at converting a wartime memorandum into a fuller political agreement, with US officials describing the strikes as a "limited warning" and the threat of renewed force serving as negotiating leverage.
Diplomatic Engagements
President Trump is hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House. The meeting with Netanyahu occurs amid White House frustration over Israel’s reluctance to advance a broader settlement to the Iran conflict, with the Trump administration pushing Israel to accept a conditional Gaza deal linking Hamas disarmament to phased Israeli withdrawal from parts of the Gaza Strip. Trump is casting doubt on the Patriot missile license for Ukraine, stating he is "not sure" and "analyzing" the move, while dispatching envoys to Kyiv for a new peace push, despite earlier commitments. Oman and Iran are also holding talks on maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling regional efforts to manage tensions outside traditional US-led frameworks. Trump has publicly warned Moscow and Beijing that their stance in the Gulf crisis will affect future talks on Ukraine, sanctions, and NATO-related issues, extending his "linkage diplomacy" to fold multiple dossiers into a single transactional bargaining framework, even as he states he is "losing faith" in Iran.
Trade and Alliance Pressures
US courts and Congress are intensifying scrutiny of the war's costs and the expansion of executive power. The House has passed a resolution calling for an end to the war, and a binding Senate measure fell just short. The administration has replaced its expired 10% global tariff with new duties of 10 to 12.5% on imports from 60 trading partners, including the EU and China, imposed under Section 301. These duties explicitly encompass a broad range of EU exports, covering over 99% of US imports, and are being treated in Brussels as a structural escalation. The US is also banning imports of new Chinese humanoid robots and connected power inverters, citing national security and data theft concerns, while explicitly linking these measures to ongoing negotiations with Beijing over tariffs and export controls. The US Senate has advanced a bill that would significantly broaden President Trump’s authority to use punitive tariffs, authorizing up to 200% tariffs on major purchasers of Russian oil and gas and countries aiding sanctions evasion. European and Asian allies are assessing possible WTO challenges and considering calibrated retaliation, but most are also exploring bilateral carve-outs to limit damage to key sectors. NATO leaders are preparing for an Ankara summit on July 8, 2026, where they anticipate renewed US demands for increased defense spending and greater responsibility for Europe's conventional defense. The Pentagon has formally initiated a "European Posture Review" to reassess US force levels, basing, and missions across the continent, explicitly linking the exercise to Trump’s demands for European NATO members to shoulder more of the defense burden. The US has also informed allies it will relinquish its leadership of the NATO command in Germany that coordinates military aid to Ukraine, expecting a European state to take over.
Global Health and Immigration Policy
The US government has released $600 million in funding to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, while explicitly confirming that no US funds channeled through Gavi will go to the World Health Organization. This move reinforces the administration's use of health and multilateral structures as bargaining tools, linking continued US health security contributions to governance changes in multilateral bodies rather than treating them as automatic commitments. The US Senate has confirmed Trump's nominee to lead the Transportation Security Administration, signaling a push for privatized airport security that could affect international aviation security agreements. The Trump administration has escalated a war of words with Spain over the Ceuta migration crisis, leveraging it to justify aggressive US immigration enforcement and expanded raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the US Border Patrol, alongside mass deportations, with over 622,000 undocumented immigrants expelled since January 2025. US officials linked future security cooperation and trade preferences to Spain taking stronger action, departing from previous multilateral approaches and aligning with Trump's transactional foreign policy.
Key events
Full chronicle645
This week
- US and Iranian delegations reconvened in Switzerland for talks on a political agreement.
- Trump linked a pause in Iran airstrikes to rapid deal on Strait of Hormuz and nuclear threat.
- Trump warned Moscow and Beijing that their Iran stance affects other geopolitical talks.
- Japan and US launched first joint yen intervention since 2011 to halt currency slide.