Macro · Pollar

Macro·yesterday

OECD warns global growth could fall to 2.1% if Gulf energy crisis drags into 2027

The OECD has cut its global growth forecast to 2.8% for 2026 and warned that a prolonged disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could push growth down to levels rarely seen outside major recessions.

Paris

Mathias Cormann Isabell Koske

Macro·2d ago

Spain adds 232,000 jobs in May, hitting 22.3 million record, as foreign workers drive half the gains

Social Security affiliations reached an all-time high of 22.34 million in May, the second-best May on record, driven by hospitality hiring and a sharp rise in foreign workers.

Madrid

Elma Saiz

Macro·3d ago

German Pension Contributions Set to Jump to 19.9% by 2028, New Forecast Shows Sharper Rise Ahead

The German Pension Insurance has revised its forecast, now projecting the contribution rate will rise to 19.9% in 2028, a sharper increase than previously expected, piling pressure on the government's reform commission.

Berlin

DRV spokesperson

Macro·6d ago

German inflation unexpectedly drops to 2.6% in May as fuel discount takes effect, but ECB rate hike looms

Germany's annual inflation rate fell to 2.6% in May from 2.9% in April, defying economist expectations, as a temporary fuel tax cut and lower crude oil prices eased pressure on consumers.

Wiesbaden · Frankfurt

Holger Schmieding Silke Tober Isabel Schnabel Joachim Nagel Philip Lane Yannis Stournaras Andreas Pischetsrieder

Macro·May 26

ECB officials signal June rate hike as Iran war drives inflation toward 4% and economic outlook darkens

Top European Central Bank officials Isabel Schnabel and Philip Lane have delivered their clearest warnings yet that interest rates will rise in June, as the Iran war pushes eurozone inflation toward 4% and the macroeconomic outlook deteriorates.

Frankfurt

Isabel Schnabel Philip Lane

Macro·yesterday

Brussels urges Spain to scrap reduced VAT for hotels and restaurants, citing €7 billion annual cost

The European Commission has recommended Spain limit its reduced VAT rate on hotels, bars and restaurants, arguing the preferential treatment costs nearly €7 billion a year while disproportionately benefiting the wealthy.

Brussels · Madrid

Teresa Ribera Pedro Sánchez

Macro·yesterday

OECD maps two paths for global economy as Hormuz crisis drags on: slow recovery or outright recession

The OECD has abandoned its baseline forecast and instead laid out two scenarios hinging on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, warning that a prolonged disruption could push several economies into recession.

Paris · Strait of Hormuz · Kuwait City · Athens · Dublin · Washington

Mathias Cormann Stefano Scarpetta

Macro·2d ago

Spain hits 22.3 million workers as unemployment falls to lowest since 2008

Social Security affiliations topped 22.3 million for the first time in May while registered unemployment fell by 36,323 to around 2.3 million, the best reading since 2008, according to figures released Tuesday.

Madrid · Barcelona · Palma · Santander · Santa Cruz de Tenerife · Badajoz

Josep Ginesta Catalina Cabrer Eduardo Arasti

Macro·May 27

German Economic Advisers Slash 2026 Growth Outlook to 0.5%, Warn Social Charges Could Hit 50% of Wages

The Council of Economic Experts cut its GDP forecast to 0.5% for 2026, blaming the Iran War’s surge in energy prices, and warned that social security contributions could reach 50% of income by 2040 without deep reforms.

Berlin

Monika Schnitzer Friedrich Merz

Macro·6d ago

Bank of Italy Governor Panetta Warns Gulf Conflict Could Stagnate Italian Economy, Urges EU Reform and Youth Investment

Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta delivered a stark warning that the conflict in the Persian Gulf has dramatically weakened economic prospects, potentially pushing Italy into stagnation or contraction, while calling for urgent European reforms and investment in youth.

Rome · Strait of Hormuz

Fabio Panetta Donald Trump

Macro·yesterday

Spain stays eurozone's fastest-growing major economy in 2026, OECD says, but inflation sticks near 3%

The OECD raised its 2026 growth forecast for Spain to 2.2%, nearly triple the eurozone average, while warning that energy-driven inflation will stay elevated through 2027.

Madrid · Paris

Macro·2d ago

Abolishing Germany's 'pension at 63' would save €9.5 billion per cohort, study finds

A DIW study for the Bertelsmann Stiftung calculates that scrapping the abschlagsfreie Frührente would save the state €9.5 billion per retiree cohort and retain 125,000 full-time workers.

Berlin · Gütersloh

André Schleiter Eric Thode Angela Merkel Andrea Nahles Monika Schnitzer