Ten years after Brexit referendum, young Britons overwhelmingly back EU return as economic costs mount

A decade of political upheaval

Since the 2016 vote, the UK has cycled through five prime ministers, each leaving office deeply unpopular. Publicist Tom McTague called it "the worst period of government in modern British democracy." The process triggered two snap elections and years of negotiation, culminating in the formal departure on 31 January 2020.

Generational reversal on EU membership

A More in Common survey of 440 young people across the UK finds 60% of 18-28 year olds would vote to rejoin the EU, with only 9% opposed. Among those most likely to vote, support reaches 81%. Half of Gen Z respondents view Brexit as a failure, while 16% see it as a success. Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, said young people are hesitant to return to the endless Brexit debates that dominated their adolescence, fearing distraction from cost of living, housing, jobs and climate change.

Although young Britons largely support returning to the EU, focus group conversations with Gen Z voters suggest they are hesitant about going back to the never-ending Brexit debates they remember from their youth. This risks diverting attention from the issues they care about most: the cost of living, affordable housing, jobs and climate change.

Demographic shifts have reshaped the electorate. Over 6 million Britons have died since the referendum, disproportionately older Leave voters. About 15% of Leave voters have died compared to 10% of Remain voters. Meanwhile, roughly 6 million young people who were ineligible in 2016 are now registered to vote.

Economic toll: a 'shrunk power'

A report by the Sobieski Institute, authored in part by former Polish ambassador to the UK Arkady Rzegocki, concludes that Brexit did not ruin the UK but gradually weakened it. GDP per capita is estimated to be 6-8% lower than it would have been without Brexit. Business investment has fallen by 12-18%, and state revenues are £75-100 billion smaller annually, a sum comparable to the entire defence budget.

Brexit was not a story of collapse but of gradual weakening. The United Kingdom did not lose its statehood or strategic significance, but it became an economically more shrunken power. The British decade shows that in the 21st century, formal sovereignty is not a substitute for access to the largest markets and international cooperation networks.

Europe's exit contagion fades, except in Poland

The EU's strategy of making Brexit a cautionary tale appears to have worked. Support for Frexit in France dropped from one-third in 2016 to under one-quarter today. In the Netherlands, Nexit support collapsed from 40% to just 10% by 2024, prompting Geert Wilders' PVV to abandon the demand. Even Germany's AfD now advocates for more national sovereignty within the bloc rather than leaving. Poland, however, remains an outlier where eurosceptic sentiment has not declined in the same way.

British migration to Poland surges

One unexpected consequence: the number of British citizens living in Poland has grown 340% over the past decade, from 42,000 to 185,000. Many cite better healthcare, cheaper public transport, and lower living costs. Meanwhile, about 25,000 Poles left the UK last year alone. The dream of retiring to Spain has also faded for Britons post-Brexit, with British buyers' share of Spanish real estate sales falling from 80% in the 1990s to 8% today.

Return to the EU? Not imminent

Despite shifting public opinion (a YouGov poll shows 55% of Britons now favour rejoining, with 34% opposed), experts caution that re-accession is far from straightforward. Zuzanna Ptaszyńska of the University of Warsaw notes that while a majority of EU citizens also support UK return, Brussels would not offer the same favourable terms Britain once enjoyed. The political will in the UK remains divided, and the Reform UK party, led by Brexit architect Nigel Farage, is leading in some polls.