Fuel prices climb as Poland's CPN package expires, VAT returns to 23%
The Polish government's temporary fuel price reduction package expired on 1 July 2026, pushing VAT back to 23% and lifting maximum price caps. Early pump checks show increases of up to 83 groszy per litre.
What happened
On 1 July 2026, the Polish government's "Ceny Paliwa Niżej" (CPN) package expired, ending the reduced VAT rate of 8% on fuel and the maximum price caps. The standard 23% VAT rate returned, and fuel stations regained the ability to set their own prices. Early observations show immediate price increases at the pump.
On the ground
At one Warsaw station, the price of 95-octane petrol rose from 5.99 zł per litre on Tuesday to 6.82 zł on Wednesday, an increase of 83 groszy. Diesel climbed from 6.16 zł to 6.99 zł. For a typical 50-litre tank, the cost of filling up with petrol rose from about 300 zł to 341 zł, and diesel from 308 zł to nearly 350 zł. Drivers expressed frustration.
Another said,Expensive, very expensive, and definitely too expensive.
It's a must, you can't wait. If you have no fuel and need to work, you have to refuel.
Expert forecast
Urszula Cieślak, an analyst at Reflex, told PAP that the average increase would be 30-50 groszy per litre, though the VAT jump alone could justify over 50 gr. She noted that the CPN package had "flattened" prices, suppressing differences between stations, especially on motorways.
She added that no sharp wholesale price drops are expected, making it difficult to offset the VAT increase, as the zloty has weakened and oil price declines have stalled.The disappearance of this mechanism will cause differences between individual stations to become more pronounced again. It may not happen from 1 July, but after a few days we will see how individual stations reacted to the withdrawal from the CPN package.
Background of the CPN package
The CPN package was introduced at the end of March 2026 in response to a surge in global oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. It cut VAT on petrol, diesel, and biocomponents from 23% to 8%, and reduced excise duty by 29 gr for petrol and 28 gr for diesel. Maximum retail prices were set by the Minister of Energy. The excise reduction ended on 15 June, and the VAT reduction expired on 30 June. Before the package, in the week prior to its introduction, average prices had spiked: 95 petrol reached 7.16 zł/l (up from 5.73 a month earlier), 98 petrol 7.85 zł/l (from 6.48), and diesel 8.75 zł/l (from 5.98). On 31 March, the first day of maximum prices, caps were set at 6.16 zł for 95, 6.76 zł for 98, and 7.60 zł for diesel. By 30 June, the last day, those caps had fallen to 6.00 zł, 6.68 zł, and 6.19 zł respectively.
- CPN package takes effect: VAT cut to 8%, excise reduced, maximum prices set
- Reduced excise duty expires
- Reduced VAT and price caps expire
- Fuel prices rise, VAT returns to 23%
Government stance
Finance Minister Andrzej Domański reiterated that the package was always temporary.
He had earlier cited analyst forecasts of a 30-40 gr increase.The CPN package was from the very beginning clearly communicated as a temporary package, linked to the situation in the Middle East and the fact that oil prices shot up to as much as $115-116 per barrel. Today it's around $70.
- 95 petrol (pre-CPN week)
- 7.16 zł/l
- 95 petrol (31 Mar 2026)
- 6.16 zł/l
- 95 petrol (30 Jun 2026)
- 6 zł/l
- 98 petrol (pre-CPN week)
- 7.85 zł/l
- 98 petrol (31 Mar 2026)
- 6.76 zł/l
- 98 petrol (30 Jun 2026)
- 6.68 zł/l
- Diesel (pre-CPN week)
- 8.75 zł/l
- Diesel (31 Mar 2026)
- 7.6 zł/l
- Diesel (30 Jun 2026)
- 6.19 zł/l
