Trump touts Iran ceasefire and Ukraine peace push as fractious G7 opens in Evian

Iran ceasefire and the Strait of Hormuz

President Trump announced the preliminary agreement with Iran on Sunday, ahead of his arrival at the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains. The deal, to be signed in Geneva on Friday, has already begun to reshape energy markets. Trump declared that ships were transiting the Strait of Hormuz toll-free and that the oil price was "plummeting down" while the stock market was "shooting up like a rocket." The memorandum of understanding still requires 60 days of further negotiation, and senior US officials cautioned that it will take weeks before commercial tanker traffic returns to pre-war levels.

France, Britain and Germany have offered to help secure the strait, including demining operations. President Macron said France was ready to deploy assets, including mine-clearing vessels, within days. But Trump suggested outside help might not be needed, telling Macron that the waterway was "going to be open" and that "I don't think it's a bad idea to have a ship or two up here from a few countries."

I think a lot of great things are going to happen in the Middle East right now, and very importantly the oil (price) is plummeting down and the stock market is shooting up like a rocket today. The Iran deal that we made is going to bring a lot of success to the world.

Trump's original war aims left unmet

Despite the celebratory tone, the framework agreement falls short of the goals Trump set when the US and Israel launched hostilities in late February. At the time, he called for the annihilation of Iran's military capability, an end to its nuclear ambitions, the overthrow of its theocratic leadership and the liberation of its people. A week into the 15-week conflict he demanded "unconditional surrender." The New York Times reports that the deal essentially restores the pre-war status quo on the Strait of Hormuz, and the programme has not been made public. Trump nonetheless proclaimed on Truth Social: "Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"

Fresh push on Ukraine

Trump revealed that he spoke on Sunday with both President Putin and President Zelenski, and that both men appeared "open" to dialogue. "Tuvimos una conversación muy buena ayer con el presidente Zelenski y con el presidente Putin," he told reporters after a bilateral meeting with Macron. "Veo que quizás podemos hacer algo ahí, realmente lo creo." The US president offered sharply conflicting casualty figures — 25,000 dead per month according to one account, 25,000 per week according to another — underscoring the fog that surrounds the war more than four years after Russia's full-scale invasion.

Mueren 25.000 personas al mes, sobre todo soldados. No debería suceder.

European leaders moved quickly to shape the new opening. Commission President von der Leyen stressed that Ukraine is holding the front line and even partially retaking territory, that it has become a leading producer of advanced military equipment, and that Russia's war economy "nunca había estado tan debilitada." German Chancellor Merz called the moment a "window of opportunity" to push diplomacy with Moscow.

Ukraine is holding the front line and even partially regaining territory. It has developed the capability to strike strategic targets deep inside Russia. It has become one of the world's leading producers of cutting-edge military equipment. On the other hand, Russia is feeling the strain and pressure. Putin's war economy has never been so weakened.

EU launches accession talks with Kyiv

On the margins of the summit, EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg formally opened accession negotiations with Ukraine, a step that had been blocked by Hungary for more than two years. European Council President António Costa called it "a historic step towards the integration of Ukraine into the European Union." The first intergovernmental conference, focused on the rule of law, began on Monday, and Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos described the day as "a mega-Monday for the enlargement process." The move strengthens Kyiv's hand even as member states remain divided on the pace of EU expansion.

Today we are taking a historic step towards the integration of Ukraine into the European Union.

G7 tensions and the road ahead

The summit host, Emmanuel Macron, congratulated Trump on the Iran agreement, calling it "a very important matter for peace of the whole world." But the bonhomie sits atop persistent friction. Trump did not consult European allies before launching strikes on Iran, and he has since lambasted NATO partners for failing to join the military operation. The mood is further clouded by new US tariff threats against France, rhetoric questioning the alliance, and warnings about immigration that have stoked political division inside the G7.

The official opening of the summit is set for Wednesday evening, with President Zelenski due to join leaders on Tuesday morning. European capitals hope Trump will use his direct line to Putin to pressure Moscow into meaningful negotiations. Whether the US president follows through remains the key variable in a gathering that one official described as taking place "en un momento especialmente convulso de la política mundial."