Tusk's KO leads Polish poll with 31.4%, but junior coalition partners PSL and Poland 2050 fail to cross threshold
The latest Opinia24 survey puts Civic Coalition at 31.4% among decided voters, while two parties in Donald Tusk's government fall below the 5% threshold. The far-right Confederation and its splinter group both post strong numbers.
The top of the field
Civic Coalition (KO), led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, would receive 31.4 percent of the vote if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, according to an Opinia24 poll published by Onet. One report, from Polsat News, cited a slightly higher figure of 34.1 percent for KO based on a subset of decided respondents, but all other sources converged on 31.4 percent. Law and Justice (PiS), the main opposition party chaired by Jarosław Kaczyński, placed second with 24.2 percent. The gap between the two largest parties stands at 7.2 percentage points.
- Civic Coalition (KO)
- 31.4 %
- Law and Justice (PiS)
- 24.2 %
- Confederation
- 12.6 %
- The Left
- 7.5 %
- Confederation of the Polish Crown
- 7.5 %
- Together Party
- 3.2 %
- Polish People's Party
- 2.7 %
- Poland 2050
- 1.8 %
Coalition partners at risk
Two junior members of the current ruling coalition would fail to enter the Sejm. The Polish People's Party (PSL) registered only 2.7 percent support, while Poland 2050, led by Szymon Hołownia, polled at 1.8 percent. The only governing ally that cleared the 5 percent threshold is The Left (Lewica), which tied with Confederation of the Polish Crown at 7.5 percent apiece. The identical result for those two formations is one of the survey's most striking features.
The right-wing bloc
Confederation (Konfederacja), co-led by Krzysztof Bosak and Sławomir Mentzen, solidified its position as the third political force with 12.6 percent. Together with the splinter Confederation of the Polish Crown, led by Grzegorz Braun, the broader far-right camp would claim around 20 percent of the vote. This suggests a significant rightward shift in the electorate compared with previous cycles.
Other parties and turnout
Below the threshold, the Together Party (Partia Razem) reached 3.2 percent, the highest figure among the also-rans and enough to retain state campaign subsidies. An additional 1.4 percent of respondents favoured other groups, while 5 percent were undecided. Declared turnout was high: 73 percent of respondents said they would vote, with 50 percent absolutely certain and another 23 percent leaning towards participation. Twenty-one percent said they would not take part.
Methodology
The survey was conducted by the Opinia24 research centre on 8–10 June 2026 using computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) and online interviews (CAWI) on a representative sample of 1,000 adult residents of Poland. Results reflect the preferences of respondents who declared they would vote.
