Spain's PSOE widens lead over PP to 7.9 points in July CIS poll despite Ábalos corruption sentencing

The headline numbers

The Socialist Party (PSOE) climbed 1.7 percentage points to reach 33% estimated vote share in the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) barometer for July, published on Wednesday. The conservative Partido Popular (PP) fell two points to 25.1%, widening the gap between the two largest parties to 7.9 points. The fieldwork consisted of 4,020 interviews conducted between 1 and 6 July, the week after the Supreme Court sentenced former transport minister José Luis Ábalos to 24 years in prison on 22 June for offences including criminal organisation, bribery, embezzlement and influence peddling.

El PSOE se recupera y lograría el 33 % de los votos, según el último barómetro del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS), que sitúa al PP a 7,9 puntos de los socialistas tras perder dos puntos respecto a la encuesta de junio.

The corruption backdrop

The poll was the first conducted after two high-profile judicial developments. On 22 June the Supreme Court sentenced Ábalos to 24 years, his former adviser Koldo García to 19 years, and businessman Víctor de Aldama to 4 years and 6 months after applying a mitigating factor for cooperation with the justice system. During the fieldwork period, the director general of the Guardia Civil, Mercedes González, and the deputy operational director, Manuel Llamas, were formally placed under investigation in the Leire Díez case, which concerns alleged efforts to obstruct judicial proceedings affecting Socialists.

Contra pronóstico, la condena a 24 años de cárcel a José Luis Ábalos por delitos de corrupción cuando era ministro de Transportes no sólo perjudica al PSOE, sino que parece impulsarle.

The rest of the party field

Vox slipped half a point to 15.3%, remaining in third place. Sumar, the junior partner in the governing coalition, shed three tenths to 6.1%. Further down the list, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) gained eight tenths to reach 2.7%, while the far-right Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF), led by MEP Alvise Pérez, rose seven tenths to 2.6%, edging ahead of Podemos, which fell to 2.5%.

Ministerial approval ratings

The CIS barometer also included a government minister evaluation. Economy minister Carlos Cuerpo remained the highest-rated member of the cabinet with a score of 5.62 out of 10, down three tenths from the previous reading in April. Social rights minister Pablo Bustinduy followed at 5.36, and culture minister Ernest Urtasun at 5.02. They were the only three ministers to achieve a passing grade. Foreign minister José Manuel Albares was next at 4.74.

Political context

Following the Ábalos sentencing, the PP brought a non-binding motion to the final ordinary plenary session of Congress urging prime minister Pedro Sánchez to face a confidence vote or resign over corruption scandals affecting his political and family circles. The motion passed with support from Vox and Junts. Two days later Sánchez received backing from the PSOE federal committee, where the only dissenting voices came from Castilla-La Mancha president Emiliano García Page and Palencia mayor Miriam Andrés. Sánchez has reiterated that the next general election will be held in 2027.